Novo Nordisk (NOVO-B.CO) Stock Analysis & AI Equity Report
The ready report was written by the Valuatum engine on 20 August 2026 and holds the figures available then. A fresh report is written today, from today's data, and arrives by email — usually within about 30 minutes.
Novo Nordisk (NOVO-B.CO) overview
Novo Nordisk (NASDAQ Copenhagen: NOVO-B.CO) stock analysis and AI equity research. Novo Nordisk shares trade at 300.15 DKK; Valuatum rates NOVO-B.CO BUY with a 404.50 DKK 12-month price target (+34.8% vs the current share price). This Drug Manufacturers - General equity research report covers Novo Nordisk's valuation, segment-value analysis, reverse valuation, financial forecasts, key ratios, risks and catalysts.
Key metrics & valuation multiples
52-week range 224.25 DKK – 409.95 DKK · 1-year change -13.2% · 3-year change -52.0%.
Executive summary
Novo Nordisk A/S (NOVO-B.CO, NASDAQ Copenhagen) develops, manufactures and commercialises medicines for obesity, diabetes and selected rare diseases, led by Wegovy, Ozempic and Rybelsus, in this Valuatum equity research report dated 20 August 2026. The rating is BUY with a 12-month target price of 404.50 DKK against a current price of 300.15 DKK, implying +34.8% upside. Market capitalisation is DKK 1,333.4 bn and enterprise value is DKK 1,353.8 bn. The company’s peptide and biologics manufacturing network supports marketed franchises while next-generation metabolic and rare-disease programmes provide probability-weighted optionality.
Novo Nordisk A/S (NOVO-B.CO, NASDAQ Copenhagen) develops, manufactures and commercialises medicines for obesity, diabetes and selected rare diseases, led by Wegovy, Ozempic and Rybelsus, in this Valuatum equity research report dated 20 August 2026. The rating is BUY with a 12-month target price of 404.50 DKK against a current price of 300.15 DKK, implying +34.8% upside. Market capitalisation is DKK 1,333.4 bn and enterprise value is DKK 1,353.8 bn. The company’s peptide and biologics manufacturing network supports marketed franchises while next-generation metabolic and rare-disease programmes provide probability-weighted optionality.
Investment thesis — three reasons
The model values 2026 EV/EBITDA at 9.14x against a normalised historical average of 21.61x. Obesity Care receives DKK 75 bn of 2026E EBITDA at 10.5x and Diabetes Care DKK 62 bn at 8.0x, so the BUY case depends on durable marketed cash generation rather than a return to peak multiples.
Segment value analysis — enterprise-value allocation
The segment value analysis decomposes Novo Nordisk's enterprise value into the distinct businesses and options the market is paying for. The allocation across each segment is shown below; the full segment economics are in the report.
Obesity Care is the principal profit engine, competing for healthcare spending linked to obesity and its complications rather than only the anti-obesity drug market. Modelled revenue of DKK 130,255m and EBIT of DKK 82,190m support a 10.5x multiple on DKK 75.0bn of 2026E EBITDA, or DKK 787.5bn of target EV before pipeline options. That allocation demands more than prescriptions: capacity must support more than 5m persistent patients, one-year persistence must remain above 55%, and access must offset lower net revenue. Novo held 39.9% of U.S. branded obesity prescriptions against Lilly’s 60.1%, while oral Wegovy held approximately 90% of the U.S. oral segment. Retatrutide’s 28.7% Phase 3 weight loss and CagriSema’s failure to show non-inferiority cap the multiple, although reimbursement and oral convenience support scale.
Reverse valuation
The scenario bridge tests how revenue, EBITDA, margin, implied group multiple, enterprise value and equity value move together when marketed franchises, pipeline outcomes and cash generation change. The primary swing factor is not a standalone multiple: it is whether lower prices are offset by persistent reimbursed patient growth. Bear removes pipeline value and combines share loss, price compression and weak persistence; Base assumes partial pipeline success and manufacturing execution; Bull requires reimbursement, oral economics, differentiation and net cash generation.
Novo Nordisk financial statements & estimates
All figures in DKK millions unless noted; per-share data in DKK.
Unlock the Novo Nordisk ready report
The full PDF adds the complete reverse-valuation scenario model, segment financial statements and estimates, the full risk & catalyst analysis, and the institutional one-page snapshot. Instant download for €20.00. Written on 20 August 2026, from the figures available then.
Novo Nordisk (NOVO-B.CO) stock — frequently asked questions
Is Novo Nordisk (NOVO-B.CO) a buy or a sell?
Valuatum's latest AI equity report rates Novo Nordisk (NOVO-B.CO) BUY, with a 12-month price target of 404.50 DKK versus a 300.15 DKK share price (+34.8%). The full report explains the rationale behind the rating.
What is the Novo Nordisk (NOVO-B.CO) share price target?
The current Valuatum 12-month price target for Novo Nordisk is 404.50 DKK, implying +34.8% versus the current share price. Unlock the report for the valuation behind the target.
How is Novo Nordisk (NOVO-B.CO) valued?
The Novo Nordisk AI equity report values the company using segment-value analysis and a reverse valuation (a DCF-style framework), with segment financial estimates, key ratios, risks and catalysts. Buy the report to read the full valuation.
Where can I get the Novo Nordisk (NOVO-B.CO) equity research report?
Buy the Novo Nordisk (NOVO-B.CO) AI equity report PDF on this page for instant download, or generate a fresh report for any listed company.
Sources & methodology
- Primary data: Valuatum Equity Research, Novo Nordisk A/S report dated 20 August 2026 (the value-map allocations, anchor market capitalisation of DKK 1,333.4 bn, enterprise value of DKK 1,353.8 bn and share price of 300.15 DKK). Modelled division splits, market conversions, patient economics, success probabilities and valuation multiples are analyst estimates rather than company guidance.
- Competitor context: Lilly held 60.1% of U.S. branded obesity prescriptions versus Novo’s 39.9%; Lilly’s retatrutide achieved 28.7% Phase 3 weight loss; Lilly’s Mounjaro generated USD 9.94bn in Q2 2026 versus Ozempic revenue of USD 4.88bn; Sanofi traded at 8.1x, AstraZeneca at 13.3x, Amgen at 11.6x and the broad peer median at 12.8x 2026E EV/EBITDA. Lilly’s 43.7x multiple is not an appropriate group benchmark, while Sanofi’s 8.1x understates Novo’s obesity and pipeline exposure.
- Market data: NOVO-B.CO at 300.15 DKK as of 20 August 2026; 2026E revenue is DKK 298,825m, EBITDA is DKK 148,102m and comparable EBIT is DKK 122,444m. The target bridge applies 10.5x to DKK 75,000m of obesity EBITDA, 8.0x to DKK 62,000m of diabetes EBITDA and 12.0x to DKK 1,500m of rare-disease EBIT, with probability-weighted pipeline values. The model’s DKK 2.45bn 2026 gross capex conflicts with management’s approximately DKK 55bn operational guidance and is treated as a model-timing artefact; valuation relies on EBITDA multiples and explicit debt rather than capitalising the unusual model FCFF.
Valuatum reports are generated using Valuatum's AI equity research framework — a structured enterprise-value and segment value methodology built on 25+ years of professional equity research practice. See the methodology for the full approach.
Disclaimer: This is AI-generated research material for informational purposes only. It may include analytical rating and target-price language, but it is general research, not investment advice to any individual reader. Always perform your own analysis. Valuatum Oy, Helsinki, Finland.
Analyst reports on Novo Nordisk
Each is this company's Valuatum report re-run with an analyst's own assumptions and published under their name. They are ordered by what other analysts said the work added over the engine's report — a score out of five from people who had to read it to give it.