Tesla (TSLA) Stock Analysis & AI Equity Report
This report was written by the Valuatum engine on 7 September 2026 and holds the figures available then. A fresh report is written today, from today's data, and arrives by email — usually within about 30 minutes.
Tesla (TSLA) overview
Tesla (NASDAQ Global Select: TSLA) stock analysis and AI equity research. Tesla shares trade at 352.16 USD; Valuatum rates TSLA BUY with a 536.80 USD 12-month price target (+52.4% vs the current share price). This Auto - Manufacturers equity research report covers Tesla's valuation, segment-value analysis, reverse valuation, financial forecasts, key ratios, risks and catalysts.
Key metrics & valuation multiples
52-week range 297.38 USD – 498.83 USD · 1-year change +0.7% · 3-year change +46.3%.
Executive summary
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA, NASDAQ Global Select) designs, manufactures and services electric vehicles, energy-storage systems, charging infrastructure and solar products, while developing driver-assistance software, autonomous mobility and humanoid robots. The BUY call carries a 12-month target price of 536.80 USD against 352.16 USD, implying +52.4% upside, with market capitalisation of USD 1,400.2 bn and enterprise value of USD 1,407.9 bn in this Valuatum equity research report dated 7 September 2026. The investment case depends on manufacturing scale converting a connected fleet, battery platform and customer channel into higher-margin software, autonomy and energy businesses.
The central tension is between current earnings and future platform value. Unsupervised autonomy and robotaxi platform carries 60.1% of allocated enterprise value, or USD 846,368m, despite no reported sales or profit, while core automotive carries 19.9%, or USD 280,629m, against revenue of USD 78,056m and gross profit of USD 11,200m. Paid driver-assistance software and Energy storage systems add 8.0% and 4.3% of enterprise value. The stock trades at 297.8x 2026E earnings and 144.6x 2026E EBITDA, so the BUY case requires more than delivery growth: it requires permitted autonomous deployment, 2030 automotive margin recovery, recurring FSD monetisation and storage returns.
The target price uses a sum-of-the-parts method: 2030E EBIT is valued at 20.0x for core automotive, 35.0x for FSD, 20.0x for Supercharging and Energy, and 15.0x for Solar, while Robotaxi and Optimus use probability-weighted option legs. The Bear, Base and Bull scenarios imply 175.96 USD (-50.0%), 536.82 USD (+52.4%) and 912.34 USD (+159.1%) per share. The Base case requires the revised operating forecast plus probability-weighted Robotaxi and Optimus outcomes; the Bull case requires positive autonomy, software and robotics execution, while the Bear case removes option value.
Investment thesis — three reasons
Tesla controls vehicles, batteries, software, charging and the customer channel. The neutral Robotaxi case requires 3.864m active vehicles in 2030, 45,000 paid miles per vehicle and USD 0.80 per mile. Nevada authorised up to 5,000 vehicles, but California remained testing-only, making permits and audited paid-mile economics decisive for the BUY case.
FSD and Energy provide observable demand before the most speculative options mature. FSD had 1.48m active users in Q2 2026, while storage deployment reached 13.5 GWh. Together, the divisions carry USD 343.1bn of allocated enterprise value, supported by a modelled 2030 FSD EBIT of USD 6,375m and Energy EBIT of USD 6,000m.
The valuation is unusually sensitive to probability, timing and commercial economics. Robotaxi represents 60.1% of current analytical enterprise value and Optimus a further 6.9%, although neither has reported current revenue or profit. A 25% Robotaxi EBITDA margin and 10m productive Optimus robots are therefore valuation requirements, not established earnings.
Thesis breaker: Failure to establish scalable, permitted and economically attractive unsupervised operations by 2029 would remove the principal support for the Base and Bull valuations.
Segment value analysis — enterprise-value allocation
The segment value analysis decomposes Tesla's enterprise value into the distinct businesses and options the market is paying for, each shown with its share of total EV and segment economics.
Unsupervised autonomy and robotaxi platform — 60.1% · USD 846,368m
Revenue USD 0m (0.0%) · Gross profit — (—) · EV USD 846,368m (60.1%)
This is a pre-revenue autonomy platform competing for the USD 463.7bn 2030 global taxi-spend pool. The neutral case captures 30%, producing revenue of USD 139,110m and EBITDA of USD 34,778m at a 25% margin; the positive case captures 60%, producing revenue of USD 278,220m and EBITDA of USD 83,466m. The allocation demands 3.864m active vehicles, 45,000 paid miles per vehicle and USD 0.80 per mile. Nevada permits paid driverless service for up to 5,000 vehicles, whereas California remained testing-only. Waymo was completing about 500,000 paid rides weekly and Baidu Apollo Go delivered 3.4m trips in Q4 2025, leaving Tesla commercially earlier. The allocation is therefore justified only by manufacturing-led replication, broader approvals and support costs within the USD 0.60 per-mile operating envelope.
Core automotive hardware and conventional services — 19.9% · USD 280,629m
Revenue USD 78,056m (82.3%) · Gross profit USD 11,200m (57.4% EBIT-share basis) · EV USD 280,629m (19.9%)
Core automotive supplies the installed fleet, manufacturing base and customer channel. Its analytical FY2025 revenue of USD 78,056m and gross profit of USD 11,200m support a 14.3% gross margin, but the allocation demands 2030 revenue of USD 173,003m and normalized EBIT of USD 27,680m at a 16.0% margin. The selected 20.0x EBIT multiple produces EV of USD 553,600m in the target bridge. Tesla delivered 1,636,129 vehicles in 2025 and 480,126 in Q2 2026, while BYD delivered 2,256,714 BEVs in 2025. Q2 automotive gross margin excluding credits was 16.3%, but group EBIT margin was 1.4%. The BUY case therefore requires factory leverage, battery-cost reduction and unit-profit recovery without losing volume to price competition.
Paid driver-assistance software — 8.0% · USD 113,106m
Revenue USD 1,500m (1.6%) · Gross profit USD 1,350m (20.7% EBIT-share basis) · EV USD 113,106m (8.0%)
Paid driver-assistance software monetises Tesla’s compatible installed fleet through recurring billing. Current analytical revenue is USD 1,500m and gross profit is USD 1,350m, while the 2030 case requires revenue of USD 8,500m and EBIT of USD 6,375m at a 75% margin. The build uses 21.0m eligible vehicles, a 22% paid rate, USD 175 monthly post-gate ARPU and an 88% realisation factor. Active users reached 1.48m in Q2 2026, but approximately 4m HW3 vehicles may not support unsupervised FSD and the current subscription price is USD 99 per month. Regional approvals are expanding, yet California lacks driverless authority and Europe lacks broad Level 4 recognition. The allocation requires reliable unsupervised functionality, low churn and software-like operating leverage.
Optimus general-purpose robotics — 6.9% · USD 97,070m
Revenue USD 0m (0.0%) · Gross profit — (—) · EV USD 97,070m (6.9%)
Optimus addresses repetitive physical labour, but it has no reported revenue or profit and no independently verified productive commercial base. The neutral case captures 10% of the USD 2.5tn 2030 labour pool, producing revenue of USD 250,000m and EBIT of USD 27,500m at an 11% margin, requiring 10m productive robots. Tesla management described initial units as training and data-collection assets, while Figure had more than 1,250 cited BMW operating hours. The negative branch assigns only 1% share and EBIT of USD 2,500m; the positive branch requires 22.4m productive units by 2033. The allocation therefore reflects option value rather than operating proof. Accepted-output hours, intervention frequency, maintenance cost and external repeat orders must establish that robots can beat human labour and conventional automation.
Energy storage systems — 4.3% · USD 60,830m
Revenue USD 12,100m (12.8%) · Gross profit USD 3,700m (20.7% EBIT-share basis) · EV USD 60,830m (4.3%)
Energy storage is the lower-binary-risk growth engine, competing for grid capacity, balancing, backup power and avoided fuel spending. The analytical base includes revenue of USD 12,100m and gross profit of USD 3,700m, while the 2030 forecast reaches revenue of USD 37,500m and EBIT of USD 6,000m at a 16.0% margin. That requires approximately 184–191 GWh of annual deployment near USD 196 per kWh. Q2 deployment reached 13.5 GWh and Shanghai has stated annual capacity of 40 GWh, while the NatPower contract covers 25 GWh for about USD 5bn. Competition is intense: Benchmark reported Tesla at 8.4% of H1 2026 shipments against BYD at 9.1% and Sungrow at 8.8%. The 20.0x EBIT allocation requires warranty normalisation, project execution and returns on incremental capital.
Supercharging network — 0.6% · USD 9,124m
Revenue USD 2,500m (2.6%) · Gross profit USD 742m (4.6% EBIT-share basis) · EV USD 9,124m (0.6%)
Supercharging transfers fuel expenditure into electricity and monetises throughput, network density and host-funded sites. The analytical allocation carries revenue of USD 2,500m and gross profit of USD 742m, while the 2030 forecast reaches revenue of USD 6,000m and EBIT of USD 900m at a 15% margin. Q2 2026 energy delivered was 2.0 TWh, average utilisation exceeded 8.1 sessions per stall per day and Tesla held 55.2% of US DC fast-charging ports in May 2025. The allocation uses 20.0x 2030E EBIT, producing EV of USD 18,000m in the target bridge. Host-funded expansion and non-Tesla usage can improve capital efficiency, but grid upgrades, service quality and price competition constrain returns.
Solar generation — 0.1% · USD 760m
Revenue USD 671m (0.7%) · Gross profit USD 102m (-3.3% EBIT-share basis) · EV USD 760m (0.1%)
Solar generation is a small installation and inverter business. Its analytical base carries revenue of USD 671m and gross profit of USD 102m, with 2030 revenue of USD 1,100m and EBIT of USD 100m. The 15.0x EBIT allocation produces EV of USD 1,500m in the target bridge. Tesla held 33.4% of the US residential inverter market in Q4 2025, but installation-volume share was not disclosed. The federal residential tax credit was eliminated for customer-owned systems placed in service after 31 December 2025, and Solar Roof was removed from Tesla’s online store in August 2026. The value is therefore limited to demonstrated operating profit; the aspirational 100 GW annual capacity target receives no allocation.
Reverse valuation
The reverse valuation tests what Tesla must deliver for the current controlled EV of USD 1,407,887m to be supported by 2030 operating economics. At the quote, the group trades at 144.57x 2026E EBITDA and 330.49x EBIT, but the same EV becomes approximately 11.5x 2030 EBITDA and 13.1x EBIT if the forecast is achieved. The primary swing factor is autonomous deployment: the bridge requires USD 615,214m of revenue, USD 107,449m of EBIT and USD 190,159m of capex in 2030.
| Scenario | Revenue | EBITDA | Margin | Multiple | EV | Equity | Implied value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | 1,100,000 | 275,000 | 25.0% | 13.1x | USD 3,610,990m | USD 3,603,314m | 912.34 USD / sh · +159.1% |
| Base | 615,214 | 117,181 | 19.0% | 18.2x | USD 2,127,863m | USD 2,120,187m | 536.82 USD / sh · +52.4% |
| Bear | 350,000 | 42,000 | 12.0% | 16.7x | USD 702,648m | USD 694,972m | 175.96 USD / sh · -50.0% |
Core investment analysis
How the company creates economic value
Tesla creates economic value through a linked industrial platform rather than through vehicles alone. Core automotive provides the installed fleet, manufacturing capacity and direct customer channel; FSD monetises compatible vehicles; Robotaxi monetises paid miles; Supercharging raises network utilisation; and batteries support vehicles, storage and robotics. The 2025 analytical base is revenue of USD 94,827m and EBITDA of USD 10,503m, but the valuation depends on a sharp operating inflection. Core automotive revenue is forecast to rise from USD 78,056m in the analytical 2025 split to USD 173,003m in 2030, with normalized EBIT reaching USD 27,680m at a 16.0% margin. FSD requires 21.0m eligible vehicles, a 22% paid rate and USD 175 monthly ARPU to reach USD 8,500m of revenue and USD 6,375m of EBIT. Energy requires approximately 184–191 GWh of 2030 deployment and USD 6,000m of EBIT. The platform advantages are real, but the operating evidence remains uneven: Tesla delivered 480,126 vehicles in Q2 2026 and deployed 13.5 GWh of storage, while Robotaxi and Optimus remain pre-scale. The BUY case rests on these profit engines becoming a credible floor beneath the autonomy options.
Putting the divisions back together
The sum-of-the-parts bridge values each economic stream once and separates established profit engines from long-duration options. Core automotive contributes 107.5 USD per share from USD 27,680m of 2030 EBIT at 20.0x; FSD contributes 43.3 USD per share from USD 6,375m at 35.0x; Energy contributes 23.3 USD per share from USD 6,000m at 20.0x; Supercharging contributes 3.5 USD per share and Solar 0.3 USD per share. The established businesses contribute 177.9 USD per share. Probability-weighted Robotaxi contributes 324.6 USD per share and Optimus 36.2 USD per share, producing 538.7 USD before USD 1.94 of net debt and other claims. The bridge therefore supports a 536.80 USD target without an arbitrary synergy premium. The reverse test clarifies the current quote: controlled EV of USD 1,407,887m equals 144.57x 2026E EBITDA and 330.49x EBIT, but only approximately 11.5x 2030 EBITDA and 13.1x EBIT if the forecast is met. The DCF requires USD 615,214m of 2030 revenue, USD 107,449m of EBIT and USD 190,159m of capex. Future execution, not the current multiple alone, determines whether that bridge is investable.
Scenarios and verdict
The Bear outcome is 175.96 USD per share, or -50.0%, if automotive growth slows, normalized margin remains below the model, FSD stays mainly supervised, Energy produces no premium returns and Robotaxi and Optimus add no value. It requires continued capital intensity and weak free cash flow. The Base outcome is 536.82 USD, or +52.4%, if the profit engines reach their revised forecasts and the probability-weighted autonomy legs hold. That requires 3.864m Robotaxi vehicles by 2030, 45,000 paid miles per vehicle, USD 0.80 per mile, broader permits and a 25% EBITDA margin, alongside 10m productive Optimus robots in the neutral case. The Bull outcome is 912.34 USD, or +159.1%, if Robotaxi captures 60% of the USD 463.7bn taxi pool at a 30% margin, FSD sustains higher global penetration, Energy compounds with attractive returns and Optimus reaches its positive labour-pool case. Early evidence is paid mileage, regulator-filed incidents, California or equivalent approvals, FSD churn and hardware cohorts, automotive margin excluding credits, commissioned GWh and independently verified useful Optimus hours. The central debate is whether Tesla’s manufacturing system can convert autonomy into scalable economics before regulation, competition and support costs commoditise the opportunity; the evidence supports BUY, but only for investors accepting that risk.
Risks & catalysts
Downside risks
- Unsupervised reliability remains below commercial threshold (Paid driver-assistance software): frequent interventions or continued safety-driver reliance would delay driver removal, higher ARPU and scalable fleet economics, with interventions and supervised operation as the early warning indicator - HIGH impact and a thesis-breaker if it persists.
- Robotaxi support cost exceeds the per-mile envelope (Unsupervised autonomy and robotaxi platform): insurance, remote support and cleaning could consume the USD 0.60 per-mile operating envelope, with missing cost disclosure as the early warning indicator - HIGH impact and a thesis-breaker if it occurs.
- Automotive margin recovery fails (Core automotive hardware and conventional services): price competition could offset volume and factory leverage, with gross margin excluding credits remaining near 16% as the early warning indicator - HIGH impact and structural.
- Optimus cannot sustain useful work (Optimus general-purpose robotics): the productive-unit ramp and external revenue would not emerge, with training use continuing without accepted-output data as the early warning indicator - HIGH impact and structural.
- Storage pricing and warranty erode returns (Energy storage systems): GWh growth could fail to translate into EBIT and cash, with recurring warranty true-ups or margin below 20% as the early warning indicator - MEDIUM impact and manageable.
Upside catalysts
- Production-spec Cybercab launch and deployment disclosure (near-term, Unsupervised autonomy and robotaxi platform): deployed vehicles, paid miles and operating domains would test the 3.864m-fleet ramp.
- Additional driverless commercial permits (near-term, Unsupervised autonomy and robotaxi platform): California, Texas renewal and new jurisdictions would raise regulatory-gate confidence.
- FSD subscriber and hardware-cohort disclosure (near-term, Paid driver-assistance software): monthly users, churn and AI4 attachment would test the 22% take-rate and eligible-fleet assumptions.
- Brookshire Megapack 3 volume production (near-term, Energy storage systems): commissioned GWh and realised revenue per kWh would support the 184–191 GWh 2030 requirement.
- Independent Optimus useful-work validation (medium-term, Optimus general-purpose robotics): useful hours, interventions and accepted output could reduce the 42% no-value remainder.
Financial statements & estimates
All figures in USD millions unless noted; per-share data in USD.
Income Statement
| 2023A | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Sales | 96,773 | 97,690 | 94,827 | 106,419 | 129,038 | 160,384 |
| EBITDA | 11,358 | 12,444 | 10,503 | 9,739 | 12,840 | 18,038 |
| EBITDA margin | 11.7% | 12.7% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 11.2% |
| Depreciation | -2,467 | -5,368 | -6,148 | -5,479 | -6,644 | -8,056 |
| Operating Profit (EBIT) | 8,891 | 7,076 | 4,355 | 4,260 | 6,196 | 9,982 |
| EBIT margin | 9.2% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 6.2% |
| Net financial items | 1,082 | 1,914 | 923 | 541 | 831 | 951 |
| Pre-tax Profit | 9,973 | 8,990 | 5,278 | 4,801 | 7,027 | 10,933 |
| Net Earnings | 14,976 | 7,153 | 3,855 | 4,702 | 6,556 | 10,199 |
| EPS | 4.7 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 2.6 |
| DPS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Payout ratio | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Balance Sheet
| 2023A | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tangible assets | 45,123 | 51,507 | 40,643 | 49,286 | 59,761 | 74,278 |
| Intangibles | 362 | 1,226 | 135 | 152 | 184 | 228 |
| Goodwill | 253 | 244 | 257 | 257 | 257 | 257 |
| Non-current assets | 50,269 | 57,186 | 62,239 | 70,898 | 81,406 | 95,968 |
| Inventories | 13,626 | 12,017 | 12,392 | 13,621 | 16,516 | 20,529 |
| Receivables | 19,592 | 30,204 | 39,737 | 40,183 | 41,251 | 42,730 |
| Cash & equivalents | 16,398 | 16,139 | 16,513 | 18,199 | 22,067 | 27,428 |
| Current assets | 49,616 | 58,360 | 68,642 | 72,004 | 79,834 | 90,686 |
| Total Assets | 106,618 | 122,070 | 137,806 | 149,827 | 168,165 | 193,579 |
| Equity | 63,609 | 73,680 | 82,865 | 87,567 | 94,123 | 104,322 |
| Long-term debt | 2,682 | 5,535 | 6,736 | 7,068 | 10,971 | 15,822 |
| Short-term debt | 1,975 | 2,343 | 1,640 | 7,068 | 10,971 | 15,822 |
| Long-term liabilities | 9,345 | 13,824 | 23,227 | 23,559 | 27,462 | 32,313 |
| Current liabilities | 28,748 | 28,821 | 31,714 | 38,700 | 46,580 | 56,944 |
| Total liabilities & equity | 106,618 | 122,070 | 137,806 | 149,827 | 168,165 | 193,579 |
| Net debt | -6,825 | -2,516 | -8,137 | -4,062 | -125 | 4,217 |
| Capital invested | 51,868 | 65,419 | 74,728 | 83,505 | 93,998 | 108,539 |
| Equity ratio | 59.7% | 60.4% | 60.1% | 58.4% | 56.0% | 53.9% |
| Gearing | -10.7% | -3.4% | -9.8% | -4.6% | -0.1% | 4.0% |
| Net debt / EBITDA | -0.6x | -0.2x | -0.8x | -0.4x | -0.0x | 0.2x |
| Current ratio | 1.7 | 2 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 |
Cash Flow
| 2023A | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations (model) | 10,553 | 3,171 | 3,691 | 10,063 | 13,214 | 18,276 |
| Operating cash flow (Valuatum calculation) | 3,263 | 1,868 | 2,616 | 9,533 | 12,439 | 17,388 |
| Change in working capital | 7,474 | 9,298 | 6,312 | 118 | -15 | -21 |
| Gross capex | 11,643 | 12,285 | 11,201 | 14,138 | 17,151 | 22,618 |
| Capex (ex. M&A) | -11,643 | -12,285 | -11,201 | -14,138 | -17,151 | -22,618 |
| Cash after capex (CFO - gross capex) | -1,090 | -9,114 | -7,510 | -4,075 | -3,937 | -4,342 |
| Free operating cash flow (Valuatum def.) | -6,634 | -8,791 | -383 | -4,604 | -4,713 | -5,229 |
| Free cash flow to firm | -6,632 | -8,791 | -383 | -4,604 | -4,713 | -5,229 |
| CF from financing | 8,306 | 8,594 | 8,285 | 5,761 | 7,805 | 9,703 |
| Dividends paid | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net change in cash | 7,216 | -520 | 775 | 1,686 | 3,868 | 5,361 |
Key Ratios & Multiples
| 2026E | |
|---|---|
| P/E | 297.8x |
| EV/EBITDA | 144.6x |
| EV/EBIT | 330.5x |
| P / Valuatum FOCF | -304.1x |
| P/BV | 16.1x |
| Dividend Yield | — |
| Net Debt / EBITDA | -0.4x |
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Download free PDFTesla (TSLA) stock — frequently asked questions
Is Tesla a buy in 2026?
Tesla is rated BUY for a 12-month horizon, with a target price of 536.80 USD versus 352.16 USD and implied upside of +52.4%. The call is not supported by current earnings multiples alone: 2026E P/E is 297.8x and EV/EBITDA is 144.6x. It depends on 2030 automotive EBIT of USD 27,680m, FSD EBIT of USD 6,375m, Energy EBIT of USD 6,000m and probability-weighted Robotaxi and Optimus value.
What is Tesla's price target?
Tesla’s 12-month price target is 536.80 USD, implying +52.4% against the current price of 352.16 USD. The sum-of-the-parts bridge values established businesses at 177.9 USD per share, probability-weighted Robotaxi at 324.6 USD and Optimus at 36.2 USD, then deducts 1.94 USD for net debt and other claims. The resulting target is driven principally by autonomous deployment assumptions rather than near-term reported earnings.
Why is Tesla rated BUY?
Tesla is rated BUY because the valuation assigns substantial future value to a manufacturing-led autonomy platform while retaining meaningful profit-engine support. FSD has 1.48m active users and Energy deployed 13.5 GWh in Q2 2026. The Base case requires 3.864m Robotaxi vehicles, 45,000 paid miles per vehicle and a 25% EBITDA margin by 2030, alongside automotive EBIT of USD 27,680m and Energy EBIT of USD 6,000m.
Is Tesla overvalued in 2026?
Tesla is expensive on current earnings but is not overvalued under the report’s probability-weighted platform assumptions. The stock trades at 297.8x 2026E earnings and 144.6x EBITDA, while controlled EV is USD 1,407,887m. If the 2030 operating architecture is achieved, that EV becomes approximately 11.5x 2030 EBITDA and 13.1x EBIT. The valuation is overextended if permits, paid mileage, margins or useful robotics output fail to develop.
What is Tesla's bear and bull case?
The Bear case is 175.96 USD per share, or -50.0%, assuming slower automotive growth, lower margin, supervised FSD, no premium Energy returns and no Robotaxi or Optimus value. The Base case is 536.82 USD, or +52.4%. The Bull case is 912.34 USD, or +159.1%, requiring positive Robotaxi and Optimus outcomes, stronger FSD penetration, attractive Energy returns and superior cash generation.
Sources & methodology
- Primary data: Valuatum Equity Research, Tesla, Inc. report dated 7 September 2026 (the value-map allocations, anchor market capitalisation of USD 1,400.2 bn and share price of 352.16 USD).
- Competitor context: Waymo completed approximately 500,000 paid rides per week in June 2026; Baidu Apollo Go delivered 3.4m trips in Q4 2025; BYD delivered 2,256,714 BEVs in 2025; Tesla’s H1 2026 storage shipment share was 8.4% versus BYD at 9.1% and Sungrow at 8.8%. The report qualifies the comparisons because geographic scope, methodology and product definitions differ.
- Market data: TSLA, 352.16 USD as of 25 August 2026; the target bridge uses 2026E revenue of USD 106,419m, EBITDA of USD 9,739m, comparable EBIT of USD 4,260m, and 2030E revenue of USD 615,214m, EBITDA of USD 117,181m, EBIT of USD 107,449m and capex of USD 190,159m. The report flags the target as highly sensitive to Robotaxi probabilities, commercial timing, paid-mile economics, regulatory access and Optimus productivity; its scenario multiple is an implied group EV/EBITDA, not a selected multiple.
Valuatum reports are generated using Valuatum's AI equity research framework — a structured enterprise-value and segment value methodology built on 25+ years of professional equity research practice. See the methodology for the full approach.
Disclaimer: This is AI-generated research material for informational purposes only. It may include analytical rating and target-price language, but it is general research, not investment advice to any individual reader. Always perform your own analysis. Valuatum Oy, Helsinki, Finland.
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