Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX) Stock Analysis & AI Equity Report
The ready report was written by the Valuatum engine on 2 June 2026 and holds the figures available then. A fresh report is written today, from today's data, and arrives by email — usually within about 30 minutes.
Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX) overview
Recursion Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ Global Select: RXRX) stock analysis and AI equity research. Recursion Pharmaceuticals shares trade at 4.84 USD; Valuatum rates RXRX SELL with a 4.10 USD 12-month price target (-15.3% vs the current share price). This Biotechnology equity research report covers Recursion Pharmaceuticals's valuation, segment-value analysis, reverse valuation, financial forecasts, key ratios, risks and catalysts.
Key metrics & valuation multiples
52-week range 3.07 USD – 5.95 USD · 1-year change -25.1% · 3-year change -73.2%.
Executive summary
Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: RXRX) is a US clinical-stage TechBio company that pairs an AI-driven drug-discovery platform (Recursion OS, BioHive supercomputing) with pharmaceutical discovery collaborations and an internal therapeutic pipeline; in its 2 June 2026 equity report, Valuatum rates the stock SELL with a 12-month target price of 4.10 USD versus a current price of 4.84 USD, implying -15.3% downside.
The core valuation tension is that Recursion's USD 1,605 million enterprise value behaves as a binary call option on AI-driven clinical success while the company runs an unsustainable forward 2025 free cash flow deficit of 802 million on baseline 2024 net sales of only 59 million and reported EBIT of -479 million. Valuation preservation depends entirely on milestone acceleration offsetting the structural cash consumption of exponential compute capital expenditures before capital markets close. On a reverse-valuation basis, the Base scenario bridges to roughly USD 4.89 per share (+1.0%) only if revenue reaches 135 million and the platform is funded without catastrophic dilution; the Bear case collapses to USD 2.31 (-52.3%) on clinical attrition, while the Bull case reaches USD 9.32 (+92.5%) only if Recursion proves the AI thesis with multiple Phase 2 successes and a standalone software ARR floor. Until then the equity remains a highly speculative bet on the future of TechBio.
Investment thesis — three reasons
The company faces an unsustainable $802 million free cash flow deficit in 2025 because exponential compute capital expenditures overwhelm baseline net sales of $59 million.
Segment value analysis — enterprise-value allocation
The segment value analysis decomposes Recursion Pharmaceuticals's enterprise value into the distinct businesses and options the market is paying for. The allocation across each segment is shown below; the full segment economics are in the report.
The only revenue-generating pool, earning $59 million in 2024 entirely from milestone and research payments. The $700 million EV allocation is mathematically justified only if contracted milestones (key partners Roche, Genentech, Bayer; up to $12B+ potential with Roche) materialize far faster than industry averages, requiring $150M-$200M steady-state revenue from 4-6 mid-stage milestones per year.
Reverse valuation
Because every segment is structurally loss-making, the enterprise value cannot be set with traditional EBITDA multiples; instead the report tests Bear/Base/Bull scenarios by varying revenue, EBITDA and the applied multiple to derive an implied equity value and value per share against the 4.84 USD current price.
Recursion Pharmaceuticals financial statements & estimates
All figures in EUR millions unless noted.
Unlock the Recursion Pharmaceuticals ready report
The full PDF adds the complete reverse-valuation scenario model, segment financial statements and estimates, the full risk & catalyst analysis, and the institutional one-page snapshot. Instant download for €20.00. Written on 2 June 2026, from the figures available then.
Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX) stock — frequently asked questions
Is Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX) a buy or a sell?
Valuatum's latest AI equity report rates Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX) SELL, with a 12-month price target of 4.10 USD versus a 4.84 USD share price (-15.3%). The full report explains the rationale behind the rating.
What is the Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX) share price target?
The current Valuatum 12-month price target for Recursion Pharmaceuticals is 4.10 USD, implying -15.3% versus the current share price. Unlock the report for the valuation behind the target.
How is Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX) valued?
The Recursion Pharmaceuticals AI equity report values the company using segment-value analysis and a reverse valuation (a DCF-style framework), with segment financial estimates, key ratios, risks and catalysts. Buy the report to read the full valuation.
Where can I get the Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX) equity research report?
Buy the Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX) AI equity report PDF on this page for instant download, or generate a fresh report for any listed company.
Sources & methodology
- Primary data: Valuatum equity research, Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc., report dated 2 June 2026; company value map and financial snapshot (2024 net sales $59M, allocated EV Discovery Collaborations $700M).
- Consensus estimates: Consensus 2025 EBITDA of -$583M used in forecast comparisons.
- Market data: Market capitalization $1,289M; current price 4.84 USD, target price 4.10 USD (analyst-generated estimate).
Valuatum reports are generated using Valuatum's AI equity research framework — a structured enterprise-value and segment value methodology built on 25+ years of professional equity research practice. See the methodology for the full approach.
Disclaimer: This is AI-generated research material for informational purposes only. It may include analytical rating and target-price language, but it is general research, not investment advice to any individual reader. Always perform your own analysis. Valuatum Oy, Helsinki, Finland.
Analyst reports on Recursion Pharmaceuticals
Each is this company's Valuatum report re-run with an analyst's own assumptions and published under their name. They are ordered by what other analysts said the work added over the engine's report — a score out of five from people who had to read it to give it.