Nokia (NOKIA.HE) Stock Analysis & AI Equity Report
The ready report was written by the Valuatum engine on 15 July 2026 and holds the figures available then. A fresh report is written today, from today's data, and arrives by email — usually within about 30 minutes.
Nokia (NOKIA.HE) overview
Nokia (NASDAQ Helsinki: NOKIA.HE) stock analysis and AI equity research. Nokia shares trade at 10.28 EUR; Valuatum rates NOKIA.HE SELL with a 9.40 EUR 12-month price target (-8.5% vs the current share price). This Communication Equipment equity research report covers Nokia's valuation, segment-value analysis, reverse valuation, financial forecasts, key ratios, risks and catalysts.
Key metrics & valuation multiples
52-week range 3.42 EUR – 15.00 EUR · 1-year change +155.8% · 3-year change +197.7%.
Executive summary
Nokia (NOKIA.HE, NASDAQ Helsinki) is a Finland-based network infrastructure and technology company that the market is pricing as an AI-driven optical infrastructure provider funded by a high-margin patent royalty stream; in this Valuatum equity research report dated 15 July 2026 we rate the stock SELL with a 12-month target price of 9.40 EUR against a current price of 10.28 EUR, implying roughly 8.5% downside. Market capitalisation is EUR 57.4 bn and enterprise value is EUR 56.1 bn.
The core valuation tension is a sharply split enterprise-value allocation. Mobile Networks generates 39.2% of group sales but only a 1.9% comparable operating margin and commands just 3.7% of enterprise value, while Network Infrastructure and Nokia Technologies combine for nearly 87% of EV despite generating less than half of group sales. Network Infrastructure carries a 9.8% margin on EUR 7,959m of FY2025 revenue yet trades at 36.0x trailing EBIT against its EUR 28.1 billion EV allocation, well above the 18.7x that would be justified if EBIT doubled toward EUR 1.5 billion, exposing a EUR 720m valuation gap. On a reverse-valuation basis the embedded assumptions are demanding: Network Infrastructure must roughly double comparable EBIT from EUR 780 million to EUR 1.5 billion by 2028 on 6-8% CAGR revenue growth to EUR 10.0 billion, while the group trades at 19.5x EV/EBIT on 2027e estimates versus a 13.7x normalized historical average. Our 18.5x fair multiple on 2027e group EBIT of EUR 2,876m, blended 60/40 with a 22.0x P/E on 0.40 EUR EPS, yields the 9.40 EUR target. The scenario base case implies EUR 10.08 per share (-1.8%), the bear case compresses the multiple to 12.1x for EUR 7.20 (-29.9%), and the bull case reaches EUR 12.22 (+18.9%).
Investment thesis — three reasons
Network Infrastructure carries a 9.8% margin but trades at 36.0x trailing EBIT, well above the 18.7x that would be justified if EBIT doubled toward EUR 1.5 billion, exposing a EUR 720m valuation gap.
Segment value analysis — enterprise-value allocation
The segment value analysis decomposes Nokia's enterprise value into the distinct businesses and options the market is paying for. The allocation across each segment is shown below; the full segment economics are in the report.
Scaling pool assigned a premium valuation as Nokia's main route out of the stagnant telecom capex cycle, housing the Optical Networks and IP Networks units critical for data center interconnect (DCI) and AI cluster scaling. Following the February 2025 Infinera acquisition Nokia holds roughly 20% of the global market (excluding China) as the clear number two behind Ciena, with a moat built on in-house DSP design and a captive Indium Phosphide fabrication facility in San Jose. The valuation requires comparable EBIT to roughly double from EUR 780 million to EUR 1.5 billion to bring the segment EV/EBIT down to a justifiable 18.7x; if margins stall at 10%, EBIT reaches only EUR 1.0 billion, leaving the segment at an expensive 28x multiple.
Reverse valuation
The scenario bridge tests whether the revenue, margin and multiple assumptions embedded in Nokia's EUR 56.1 billion enterprise value are coherent, with the Network Infrastructure operating margin as the variable causing the largest valuation swing between scenarios. Because Nokia operates with a net cash balance sheet, the enterprise value bridges cleanly to the EUR 57.4 billion equity market capitalisation, so equity value modestly exceeds enterprise value in each scenario.
Nokia financial statements & estimates
All figures in EUR millions unless noted; per-share data in EUR.
Unlock the Nokia ready report
The full PDF adds the complete reverse-valuation scenario model, segment financial statements and estimates, the full risk & catalyst analysis, and the institutional one-page snapshot. Instant download for €20.00. Written on 15 July 2026, from the figures available then.
Nokia (NOKIA.HE) stock — frequently asked questions
Is Nokia (NOKIA.HE) a buy or a sell?
Valuatum's latest AI equity report rates Nokia (NOKIA.HE) SELL, with a 12-month price target of 9.40 EUR versus a 10.28 EUR share price (-8.5%). The full report explains the rationale behind the rating.
What is the Nokia (NOKIA.HE) share price target?
The current Valuatum 12-month price target for Nokia is 9.40 EUR, implying -8.5% versus the current share price. Unlock the report for the valuation behind the target.
How is Nokia (NOKIA.HE) valued?
The Nokia AI equity report values the company using segment-value analysis and a reverse valuation (a DCF-style framework), with segment financial estimates, key ratios, risks and catalysts. Buy the report to read the full valuation.
Where can I get the Nokia (NOKIA.HE) equity research report?
Buy the Nokia (NOKIA.HE) AI equity report PDF on this page for instant download, or generate a fresh report for any listed company.
Sources & methodology
- Primary data: Valuatum Equity Research, Nokia report dated 15 July 2026 (company value map; Network Infrastructure EV allocation EUR 28,100m, current quote 10.275 EUR).
- Consensus estimates: consensus 2026 pre-tax profit of EUR 2,017m used for consensus comparisons.
- Market data: Ticker NOKIA.HE current price 10.28 EUR as of 15 July 2026; FY2025 reported EBIT EUR 1,646m; 2027e group EBIT EUR 2,876m (analyst-generated estimate).
Valuatum reports are generated using Valuatum's AI equity research framework — a structured enterprise-value and segment value methodology built on 25+ years of professional equity research practice. See the methodology for the full approach.
Disclaimer: This is AI-generated research material for informational purposes only. It may include analytical rating and target-price language, but it is general research, not investment advice to any individual reader. Always perform your own analysis. Valuatum Oy, Helsinki, Finland.
Analyst reports on Nokia
Each is this company's Valuatum report re-run with an analyst's own assumptions and published under their name. They are ordered by what other analysts said the work added over the engine's report — a score out of five from people who had to read it to give it.